News Analysis: Are Türkiye-Israel ties beyond repair after Gaza conflict spat?

by Burak Akinci
ANKARA, Aug. 9 (Xinhua) — Despite occasional tensions, Turkish-Israeli relations have been enjoying a relative calm in recent years. However, the rift over the Gaza conflict marks a significant deterioration in bilateral ties, experts have said.
The Turkish government has steadily increased its criticism of Israel as the conflict in the besieged enclave enters its 11th month, with the Palestinian death toll from Israeli attacks nears 40,000, according to Gaza-based health authorities.
The alleged assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by Israel last week in Tehran appears to have crossed a new line for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government.
Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research program at The Washington Institute, said “Türkiye-Israel ties have crossed the Rubicon of restoration” with the assassination of Haniyeh.
The analyst believes that Erdogan, who knew Haniyeh well and had just invited him to address the Turkish parliament, will take the assassination personally and act against Israel.
Last week, Ankara sent a high-level delegation to Haniyeh’s funeral in Qatar.
So far, Ankara has banned trade with Israel and reportedly blocked Israeli-NATO cooperation since last year.
The relationship between Türkiye and Israel is complicated, especially regarding the Palestinian issue. In 2010, bilateral ties suffered a severe setback when Ankara supported a flotilla attempting to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza, leading to a deadly military raid.
It took more than a decade for Israel and Türkiye to restore their relations. Political interactions had begun to improve before the Gaza conflict. Erdogan welcomed Israeli President Isaac Herzog to Ankara in March 2022.
In late 2022, both countries reinstated their ambassadors, marking a significant step towards reconciliation.
Such a process is now in tatters after Israel’s military response in Gaza to a Hamas rampage through the southern Israeli border on Oct. 7, 2023, during which about 1,200 people were killed and around 250 others taken hostage.
After the launch of Israeli military operations in Gaza, both countries withdrew their ambassadors, while Türkiye halted all trade with Israel amid a flurry of mutual accusations.
According to Cagaptay, Türkiye’s likely retaliatory steps against Israel could be to fully suspend diplomatic ties, deepen economic sanctions, and host Hamas officially in the country, despite concerns from its Western partners who view Hamas as a terrorist organization.
Ankara could also halt Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel through the Ceyhan crude oil terminal near Türkiye’s southern coastal city of Adana, he argued.
The Palestinian cause resonates within Erdogan’s ruling conservative Justice and Development Party, which has organized massive demonstrations condemning Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip.
On Wednesday, Türkiye formally submitted an official request to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.
Ankara initially believed that the Gaza conflict would end within months, said Oytun Orhan, a senior researcher at Ankara’s Center For Middle Eastern Studies.
“But it seems that the crisis is now perceived as an open-ended conflict that could spread to other parts of the region, thereby indirectly affecting Türkiye,” he told Xinhua.
A Turkish diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Xinhua that bilateral relations have been “seriously damaged,” adding that only time will reveal how the Israeli-Turkish relationship will develop. ■